The Failure of the Believers. The Victory of the Tribalists.

The year was 1995. My friend and I were high school sophomores. The ongoing peace process, and probably the youth spirit too, set the background for a preposterous dream we had. We planned to make a big tour after we graduated from high school – travel to Europe by car and visit Lebanon and Syria on our way there. We never did make the trip, and eleven years later, this dream seems crazy.

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I met Lebanese people for the first time last summer in a students seminar in Greece. Although there were students from other countries too, I felt the Lebanese – generally speaking of course – resembled us (or we resembled them) the most. Our countries, too, have a thing or two in common. Both are small countries with a mosaic-like social fabric and great cultural and economic potential. Yet a peace agreement seems so far away.

Some argue that the lack of peace with Lebanon flows from Syrian and Iranian intervention or the fierce anti-Israeli ideology of Hizbollah. Others put most of the blame on Israel’s involvement in Lebanon in the 1980’s. But I think this current wave of violence is above all the outcome of the failure of the Believers. The ones who believe the “other side” can live in peace with them.

Middle Eastern Believers came in all nationalities but all shared the belief that once Israel withdrew from the occupied territories, violence would cease. This reasoning figured prominently among pro-peace or pro-withdrawal Israelis who argued with their compatriots who did not trust Israel’s neighbors. Similarly, Believers from the Arab world plead: “First stop the occupation – then you will have peace.” The United Nations and other international groups repeated this argument and condemned Israel for protecting its northern citizens by controlling Southern Lebanon. In such an environment, Hizbollah, despite their terrorist tactics and selection of civilian targets, was seen by outsiders as a justified movement for freedom.

Even though the Believers of Israel did not think Hizbollah would stop aiming at Israel once it withdrew from Lebanon, they thought that, with time, the Believers of Lebanon would prevail and contain Hizbollah, and if not, at least Israel would have a strong case to retaliate and deter Hizbollah not to attack us again.

Unfortunately, belief and trust are elusive. People need to see signs of goodwill from others in order to trust them. If Believers let trust defeat their fears and doubts, Tribalists exemplify the reverse phenomenon. When trust dissipates, people rely on the ones they know best to protect themselves against potential threats from the people they don’t know. A familiar Arab proverb notes: My brother and I against my cousin, and my cousin and I against the stranger. In a constant war situation, all people tend to abide by that proverb.

Some will say that international relations are always a Hobbesian state of nature, but there are plenty of examples for a different kind of international relationships. The problem is that the transition between the state of war and mistrust to international political civility is harder than we think. As long as the state of war is in place, Tribalism is a stronger force and its main advantage is the Believers disadvantage: believers need the other side to cooperate with them. Tribalists, on the other hand, need nothing from the other side. Once they attack, their action is completed. If the other side hits back, they can say they proved their point and gives them more strength domestically.

Examples for this rule are ample. When PM Rabin made peace with Arafat, both needed each other’s obligations fulfilled, or else the concessions they made would have been useless and make them vulnerable. But when Baruch Goldstein killed 29 Muslim prayers in Hebron, his mission was totally self-reliant. Same thing goes for Hamas who sent suicide bombers to the heart of Israel. They did not need Israel to make their action successful. Soon afterwards, the Israeli Believers lost the elections to the Tribalists led by Netanyahu. Tribalism is a default our nations turn to when the Believers on both sides fail to cooperate.

The same thing happened in Lebanon. Finally, after eighteen years of Israeli presence in Lebanon, the Believers of Israel won the internal debate and Israel withdrew from Lebanon. Everyone believed that it would bring an end to the vicious cycle of violence these countries experienced.

But we already know the Middle East Believers’ coordination resembles two really bad tango dancers stepping on each other’s feet. The Believers of Lebanon could not contain the Tribalists of Hizbollah (neither could the Believers of the rest of the world). They got the tyrannical Syrian regime out of Lebanon by bravely demonstrating against it (though with a Tribalist rhetoric), but they could demonstrate to make peace with Israel.

This failure by the Lebanese Believers to demonstrate for the concessions needed for peace (i.e. dismantling Hizbollah’s military power) shows the other problem the Believers face in addition to their lack of coordination. In the eyes of the Tribalists, Believers are either naïve daydreamers or shameful traitors, even if their strategy could usher their country into a whole new era of unprecedented achievements. Israel’s hard Tribalists’ hatred of “the left” is beyond comprehension. They call for the trial of the architects of the Oslo agreements with the Palestinians. On the other side of the border, my Lebanese friends are afraid to write emails to my “.il” domain (internet suffix for Israeli servers) because they fear someone will harm them if their relations with an Israeli will be known. As Tribalists get stronger, the social condemnation of Believers gets stronger too.

I did not expect the Lebanese Believers to fight a civil war, but as they succeeded to get Syria out of Lebanon, I think they could have at least tried to do something to rule out any attack from Israel. The third-party Believers – all the international organizations which now condemn Israel for its attack against Hizbollah did not do anything to prevent Hizbollah from building its force, exploiting it and using civilians as a shield. They have failed to strengthen the Believers of Lebanon and weaken its Tribalists, and therefore weakened the Believers of Israel, letting Tribalism take over the region.

If nobody can assure the Believers of their beliefs – mutual security that will allow all sides to thrive – by making sure the Believers of the both sides have enough strength to take control and move the region forward, then the actions of the first to reach out their hand for peace are futile and, more importantly, dangerous for them. The main criticism now against Barak’s withdrawal from Lebanon is that it’s the reason for our current vulnerability. Once again, the failure of Believers hit both sides and made the Tribalists of both sides say: “We told you so”.

I don’t know how this conflict will end. What I do know is that the next attempt to reach out by either side must be accompanied by a collateral ability of the other side to take the next step forward. We should all know that such success by the Believers will only enrage the hard core Tribalists who will not give up their ideology so easily and try to use force against the Believers of both sides. Without the ability of each side to contain its own Tribalists, the peace process will be doomed to failure. Nobody – especially not third-party organizations that cannot contain the Tribalists either – can pick on the one side that can contain its Tribalists and criticize it for not making the right moves towards peace. One can see how outsiders who try to blame one country or another as a whole are misidentifying the real villains: instead of making an effort to tell the “good guys” from the “bad guys” they conveniently use a ready-made label of nationality to separate the good ones and the bad ones.

My generation has grown up watching great promises turn into tragic disappointments. I truly hope for the next generation that the Believers of both Israel and Lebanon will be able to lead the way in transcending Tribalist fears, and coordinate between themselves to fight their own entrenched Tribalist movements. As time goes by, failures mount and disappointments grow, the power of the Believers weakens. Domestic struggles of the Believers against Tribalism must be strengthened by the international community. The Believers must be identified and supported. Tribalists must be condemned and, if need be, fought against. Only when the international community will be able to support Believers on both sides, will lasting peace will become a reality.